Possible Future of Energy.

There is great expectations to wind and solar energy, we know both requires appropriate geographical conditions and both require something like batteries to store their excess energy when there is no wind and sun. Both these technologies require highly efficient batteries and reasonable adjustment in infrastructure like designs of our house.  A wind farm requires more investment than conventional power plants, economically companies or governments are reluctant to install wind farm because of high per unit cost. Second, modern solar panels don’t to reach to the point where they can provide adequate  power to all appliances 24/7 and again for domestication of solar panel one has to made several adjustments in design of his house and lifestyle, on government level again solar plants are inadequate to replace any other conventional form of energy at present.

Hydrogen cell is another hope mainly for automobile and for cheap transport services but there is important thing, these types of cars use NiMH batteries and Chevron a petroleum giant owns patents of this type of battery, therefore oil industry will never allow hydrogen or electric cars on road so put your dream of hydrogen or electric car or energy aside.

Geothermal energy is another hope and indeed it is a cheap solution but again it requires specific geographical conditions like in case of hydrocarbon, solar and wind.

Now  glamorous  option of  nuclear energy is also exhausted, no one is interested in this type of energy any more except two morons in South-Asia.  USA built her last atomic reactor in 1996 some 15 years ago. These plants require massive investments, hulky security apparatus and environmental threats (as we have recently witnessed in Japan). Again  availability and processing  of radioactive  fuel is not any easy task, world has limited resources of this type of fuel also.

Unfortunately, nuclear energy is the only solution but not conventional one, I mean fusion not fission. Fusion reaction is like making sun in a box, this reaction produce boundless amount of energy with few drops of water, without using any radioactive fuel but main problem is how to put sun in a box? Lead, steel, tungsten do not have ability to resist this type of energy, that’s the only problem.  In my notion micro fusion batteries is a possible solution for future because we heavily depend on copper in our home and grid for electricity transportation and we have exhausted all major resources of copper, thus in future there will be no requirement for wire either, every electric instrument will have his own built-in source of energy in the form of micro fusion battery. Currently there is no such idea of fusion batteries exist its only limited to my imagination but I feel this will be the future.

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How to Screw Afghan Government.

Afghanistan is a land locked country having no direct trading routes with rest of the world, thus Afghanistan heavily relies upon trading routes with her neighbors. Historically, Afghanistan has been conducting majority of her trade with Pakistan, most of their imports are either from Pakistan or via Pakistan.  Two formal crossings one in Chaman and one in Torkhum and various informal crossings along Durand line  allow Afghan traders to enjoy cheap and tax-free imports with low transportation  and transaction costs. After 9/11 Kabul was occupied by Northern-Alliance clique and usually they began to destabilize Pakistan with Indian and Western support.

In first few years of Karzai regime Taliban resistance was very mild and this allowed Northern-Alliance government of Kabul to establish terror cells along Durand line to support Baloch insurgency and terrorist groups in tribal areas of Pakistan. From year 2004 to 2010 Pakistan witnessed deadly terrorist attacks on its soil and virtually intelligence agency had no clue about the master mind of those attacks. Terror groups were well-funded and highly organized, latest weapons and urban espionage techniques allow them to exercise their power in every corner of the country. During Musharaf regime Pakistani intelligence agencies got significant proofs of terror camps in Afghanistan in the form of Indian consulates.

Later government of Pakistan launched serious diplomatic assault and force Afghan government to dismantle terror apparatus on Afghan soil. Karzai under extreme pressure from Pakistan dismantle some camps related to Baloch insurgence but did not took any action against North Western terrorist camps related to militant activities in tribal areas.  Pakistan significantly increased border surveillance and began surgical strikes along Durand line, consequently terrorist attacks especially suicide and organized ambush are on decline in Pakistan.

After failure of Karzai and Taliban talks and Pakistan’s boycott of Bonn conference Karzai again began to start spreading venom against Pakistan and now he links every terror attack in Afghanistan to Pakistan and at  every international forum Karzai covers his failure by pointing Pakistan. There are many ways to screw this puppet some of them are:

First, In the name of security Pakistan may close Afghan transit trade by staging fake attacks on Afghan supplies from Karachi. This will produce tremendous pressure on Afghan because in winter season majority of Central Asians routes are  close and Iran is also facing economic sanctions thus import from Iran will be bad idea for Afghan government.

Second, Pakistan may close some refugee camps in Baluchistan this will again generate social and economic pressure in already ungoverned and unstable easter Afghanistan consequently this will affect military operations and pull foreign troops to humanitarian work instead of military operation.

Third, attack Afghan check posts this will allow Afghan government to deploy more and more troops on border thus this action will create vacuum in Afghan mainland and insurgence will exploit this.

Fourth, stage protests  against Karzai by Afghan refugees in Pakistan and motivate them to demonstrate outside Afghan embassy and consulate. Attack these protesters by force, dispersed them and injure them, this will create good news in foreign media.

Evolution of Two Nation Theory.

Highlights of upcoming essay

Al-Beruni describes division between Hindus and Muslim in Indian society:

In all matters and usage they (Hindus) are different from us (Muslims)

From early 19th century the debate between Two Nation Theory TNT and One Nation Theory ONT drove politics of South Asia. First it was debate between TNT versus ONT later new idea of Rama Rajha in Hindus and Darul Harab in Muslims emerged mainly after War of Independence.

Historically,  many states were founded on the basis of religion like Holy Roman Empire, Ottoman Empire, Bosnia, Lebanon, Israel etc. Within India in early 20th Century Sindh was divided on the basis religion with consent of Indian National Congress. Heryana another state in India divided from Punjab  on the basis of Religion.

In the beginning of 20th century Idea of United States of India emerged in Muslim and Liberal Hindu leadership, on other hand radical Hindus coined idea of Mahabharata. Religious fanatics like Lal Lajput Rai wanted to divide India on the basis of Religion. After War of Independence 1857 British Prime Minister John Bright proposed division of India in small states mainly on the basis of ethnicity and religion.  Sir Syed Ahmad Khan was also very much in favor of Two Nation Theory and by his writing and social struggle he forcibly presented idea of  Two Nation Theory more than any other leader of India.

I will describe above mentioned points in my detail essay very soon.

Tight Gas and Energy Crisis of Pakistan.

Neither we  have enough natural gas to fuel our gas turbines, nor we can afford expensive furnace oil for power generation (which is around 3 times more expensive than natural gas). Power generation from coal and dams require titanic investments and lots of time which we don’t have. Let it be solar, nuclear, wind or geothermal they are only feasible in papers only due to their cost and requirement of expertise both of which we lack. Gas import is a good choice, however,  requires minimum five to ten years. The cheapest and rapid solution we have is Tight Gas.

Tight gas is natural gas which is difficult to access because of the nature of rock surrounding the deposit.  Because this gas is difficult to access companies want to sale this gas on high price and want financial incentives for exploration.  Pakistan has an estimated tight gas reserves of 33 trillion cubic feet which are more than the existing estimated natural gas reserves of 27  trillion cubic feet. By providing some  financial incentive we can get gas cheaper gas than what we are planning  from Iran and Central Asia.

Recently Iranian energy companies and banks have been sanctioned by West and now it is difficult to get finance for this multi-billion dollar project.  Gas pipeline from Central Asian countries are only feasible when there is stability in Afghanistan. Instead of exploring solutions abroad we may explore our own indigenous capacity and formulate policies to encourage companies to explore tight gas. Unfortunately, after idiotic and stupid 18th amendment federation has handed over all rights of natural resources to provinces and all major gas reserves of tight gas are in Sindh and Baluchistan and as we all know governments in these two provinces like other are bunch of rich insane people, they don’t possess adequate intellect to form decent and attractive policy for tight gas. In Baluchistan  all members of parliament are minister and there is no opposition, same here in Sindh there is no opposition all members are in government despite this apex of democracy they cannot efficiently conduct metriculation  exams properly either, so how can they formulate such technical policy of tight gas. Only federal government can provide sovereign guarantees to investors and formulate policies provincial governments are impotent in nature.

Guerrilla Warfare in Pakistan.

Sabotage, ambush, surprise attacks and unconventional espionage methods are key ingredients of Guerrilla warfare. The word “Guerrilla” means Short War in Spanish and this term was coined by Spanish people  during 18th century war with occupied forces.  At that time Spanish freedom fighters  were divided into many decentralized teams which operated  independently.  Instead of fighting conventional war with occupied force they opted to engage them in several mini micro wars.  They designed their Strategies to disrupt supply lines of enemy and get psychological advantage by harassment and surprise attacks.

Later Foco of Cuba,  Hu Chi Minh of Vietnam, Mao Zedong of China and Afghan mujahideen introduced several new tactics and  moral code to this  art of fighting.  Historically, we can trace war tactics similar to guerrilla war in famous book “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu, in this book he explains some literary knowledge about guerrilla type war, later famous Marxist guerrilla Che Govera in his book comprehensively explains modern guerrilla techniques. The most significant book “War of flea” proved to be  the Bible of guerrilla warfare. From South America to Eastern Europe all major guerrilla movements were designed on techniques provided by this book including late  Baloch Separatist leader Akbar Bughti.

Currently, there are several versions of guerrilla warfare, most important one are American guerrilla war, Russian guerrilla war, Arab guerrilla war and Chechen guerrilla war.   Arab and Chechen guerrilla warfare are urban center and they mainly focus on suicidal type tactics.  On other hand classical guerrilla warfare like American and Russian versions mainly focus strategic roots like supply lines, proactive espionage and economical sabotage.  Arab and Chechen versions are the product of experience and indigenous available resources while American and Russian versions are products of extensive research including study of psychology and geographical condition of the war zone.

Afghan guerrilla war is the product of cross-fertilization between American and Indigenous guerrilla warfare.  Afghan guerrilla war started after Soviet occupation in 1979.  Initially, Afghan resistance movement was neither conventional nor guerrilla style; it was indigenous tribal warfare, however, it was not so effective than conventional guerrilla war.  When United States jumped into frying  pan and introduced highly advanced guerrilla tactics, this transformed all style of Afghan guerrilla war. It was the first time when any guerrilla force was equipped by highly modernized surface to air missiles and lethal industrial grade explosives mainly from West.  Later Arabs and Chechens also introduced their urban style ambush in Afghan guerrilla war.

After 9/11 Pakistan witnessed mushroom growth of  guerrilla groups in tribal areas.  Like Afghan resistance groups they also practice highly modernized guerrilla tactics in their war.  Uzbeks and Chechens also put some flavor to this technique and it became recipe of disaster for Pakistan’s arm forces.  The most important thing that differentiate Pakistani guerrilla warfare to other is their use of politics and use of negotiation, which differs principles of conventional guerrilla warfare. Mao Zedong defines guerrilla tactics in following words:

The enemy advances, we retreat; the enemy camps, we harass; the enemy tires, we attack; the enemy retreats, we pursue.”

Historically, all guerrilla forces use above mentioned method effectively, however, as I have mentioned Pakistani groups put another component of “negotiation” into this. This new method allow them to buy adequate time to regroup and acquire ideal  geographically important places.

These groups are no more relay on conventional weapons, they have developed their own range of weapons from IEDs (improvised explosive devices) to IRAM (improvised rocket assisted mortar).   Use of ordinary fertilizer which is chiefly available in every village they can establish their armory and explosive factory virtually any part of the country. These indigenous explosives are highly effective both in terms of their lethality and undetectability. Recently, these groups manufactured plastic mines rather using old Russian and Chinese mines.

The most important tool which distinguished them from other forces is their use of electronic and social media like FM radios, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube both  for propagation of  their teachings and victories and for recruitment also.  This movement is also financially stable because of their local revenue resources and use of cost-effective technology like use of fertilizer and other chiefly available items. Although, they have huge variety of indigenous weapons they also use modern weapons including surface to surface guided missiles which they mostly acquired from NATO supplies.  With guided missiles and misguided fighters, guerrilla warfare in Pakistan is currently most lethal art of fighting in the world, we can call Pakistani version as “Guerrilla 2.0.”